1Lineups as a portfolioLineups are built as a correlated set, not fifty copies of one idea: quarterback stacks, bring-backs, exposure limits where concentration hurts most, and salary dispersion to cut duplication, with an inactive check 90 minutes before kickoff.
2Yours to steerBoards and lineups are ready on a fixed weekly clock, before you wake up on Sunday. Adjust any projection, lock or exclude players, and build up to 150 lineups in seconds, exported as a one-click DraftKings upload file.
3Data with provenancePlay-by-play and usage data, snap counts, depth charts, official injury reports, sportsbook lines and stadium-level weather, refreshed on a fixed weekly clock. Every field is tagged measured or derived. Missing means missing.
4Opportunity firstVolume is the most stable signal in football. Target share, routes, carries and snap share anchor every projection; per-touch efficiency is regressed hard toward career and league baselines; game environment comes from market-implied team totals and spread.
5Context, kept in proportionOpponent adjustments are made at the position-group level and shrunk with empirical-Bayes methods so small samples can't shout. Weather is roof-aware and only matters at the thresholds where it actually moves passing games.
6Distributions, then calibrationReceptions and attempts are modeled as negative-binomial counts, yardage as gamma distributions. The probability against each posted line then passes through a walk-forward calibration layer fitted only on weeks that have already been graded. Every projection is logged before kickoff and graded after.